THE face of the nation’s surge in economy can be drawn from the the Philippines’ poorest region, the BangsaMoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). For the first time in three decades, BARMM’s grinding poverty went into decline in 2021, from a crippling 60% to 37.2%.
The challenges that can erode this newfound economic mettle remain- but are vigorously addressed by the BBM leadership. Indeed, households can backslide into poverty while the labor market remains vulnerable. World Bank cites two more challenges: limited provision of basic services, and limited progress in human capital development, i.e. education failings.The FVR tenure has transformed the Philippines into a tiger economy. The status slipped back to a struggling economy. Yet, under the BBM presidency, the country has reclaimed tiger status, became an emerging market, and is now a newly industrialized country in the Asia-Pacific region.2017: the Philippine economy was projected to become the 9th largest in Asia and 19th largest in the world by 2050. By 2035, the Filipino economy is predicted to be the 22nd largest in the world.
The Philippine economy is in transition from a solid agriculture ground to one based more on services and manufacturing. It went through significant economic growth and transformation in recent years. With an average annual growth rate of around 6 percent since 2010, the country has emerged as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.
In 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the Philippine economy is about P26.55 trillion (471.5 B), now the world’s “32nd largest by nominal GDP and Asia’s 13th largest.”2023 exceeded growth forecast for the Philippine economy. “While the forecast was between 5 and 6.3 percent, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.6 percent last year according to the World Bank, with a projected 5.8 percent expansion in the fourth quarter alone. The Philippines ended 2023 with an inflation rate of 3.9 percent in December – compared to 8.7 percent in the beginning of the year the inflation rate has fallen considerably. Inflation rate is expected to remain within the target range of 2 percent to 4 percent in 2024, according to a survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
The government has a 6 to 7 percent economic growth target for 2024. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also predicts that the Philippine economy will grow by 6.0 percent in 2024, supported by acceleration in public investment and improved external demand for the Philippines’ exports. The Philippines leave behind 2023 with the goal of becoming an upper middle-income economy in the New Year.
Reports the IMF after a look-see of its team on the nation’s economy: “The Philippine economy continues to perform well despite external challenges and policy tightening. GDP growth moderated in 2023 to 5.5 percent, due to the confluence of global shocks, inflationary pressures, and slowing consumption. “Growth is expected to rebound to 6.0 percent in 2024 and 6.2 percent in 2025, on the back of stronger consumption demand, higher public and private investment, and a recovery in exports. Downside risks to the outlook stem from geoeconomic fragmentation, high interest rates, and climate-related shocks, while efforts to attract foreign direct investment, promote business-friendly reforms, and enhance competitiveness could raise the economy’s long-term growth potential.”
IMF foresees that “recent reforms to attract foreign investment and create a business-friendly environment aim to diversify the economy and develop the country’s growth potential. “Implementation will be key, with careful selection of projects to reduce infrastructure gaps, building on the recently passed Public-Private Partnership Code. Additional efforts should center on upskilling the labor force, and enhancing the capacity of the local government units. Climate change adaptation and mitigation targets should benefit from a recent measure to facilitate foreign ownership in the renewable energy sector and ongoing efforts to promote green finance.”
The common tao will likely be his usual skeptic, with the numbers that tell of how the economy is faring, as mere figures detached from his day-to-day reality. The more discerning will liken the uptick numbers akin to school grades of the studious, a measure of performance, not in the scholastic sense, but a gauge of the stewardship that is consistently improving, however modest.
