THE probability of a moderate to strong El Niño in the last quarter of this year until early 2027 has risen to 92 percent, the chief of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Wednesday.
To recall, PAGASA issued an El Niño Watch advisory in March, declaring a 55 percent probability of an El Niño to develop in the next six months due to below-normal rainfall.
“This will be upgraded into El Niño Alert this month, projecting the phenomenon to emerge in from July to September,” PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando told the Philippine News Agency in an interview.
El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
“During El Niño, rainfall conditions are expected to be below normal,” Servando said.
Meanwhile, there are reports that neighboring country Indonesia, currently experiencing weak El Niño, is expecting the phenomenon to intensify into a moderate level by the third quarter of 2026.
“Indonesia’s climate is similar to the Philippines, and the local climate is influenced by climate variability such as El Niño,” Servando said. “Their projections of El Niño is consistent with ours.” (PNA)
